DOI: 10.69803/3083-6034-2026-2-70

УДК 336.225:336.228:330.47(574)

 

Lutpulla A. Omarbakiyev

Doctor of Economics, Professor at the Higher School of Finance andAccounting,

E-mail: l.omarbakiyev@turan-edu.kz

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3474-6244

Turan University, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan

Arzigul K. Nizamdinova

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Lecturer of the Department of Finance and Accounting,

ORCID: https://orcid.org/my-orcid?orcid=0000-0003-3507-5216

Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Aigul Ashirbekkyzy Amankeldi

Executive Master of Business Administration, m.e.s. оf the Department of Finance and Accounting

ORCID: https://orcid.org/my-orcid?orcid=0000-0002-5752-1646

Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Shyryn M. Каnтаrbаyеva

Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Law and Public Administration School

E-mail: shyryn.kantarbayeva@narxoz.kz

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5142-0951

Narxoz University, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Maiya Zh. Arzayeva

 Candidate of Economic Sciences, Assistant professor

E-mail: m.arzayeva@gmail.com

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5629-9107

Kazakh Ablai khan University of International Relations and World Languages, Almaty, Kazakhstan

 

REDUCING THE SHADOW ECONOMY THROUGH THE DIGITALIZATION OF TAX COMPLIANCE: DEVELOPMENT OF A MATURITY MODEL FOR TRANSITION ECONOMIES

 

The purpose of the article is to assess the effectiveness of the digital transformation of tax administration in the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of global trends and to develop a three-level model of digital maturity to reduce the tax gap. The study employs comparative analysis (drawing on the experiences of Estonia, Poland, and the UAE), statistical modeling of fiscal effects, and the OECD methodology (Tax Administration Maturity Model). The theoretical framework is based on the Tax Administration 3.0 concept.

An adaptive digital maturity model (2026–2030) has been developed, incorporating automated verification, predictive analytics, and proactive service. It has been established that the technological maturity of the infrastructure is a more significant factor in compliance than the tax rate.

This study is the first to adapt the principles of “embedded” taxation to the specific parameters of Kazakhstan’s 2026 tax reform, proposing a quantitative estimate of the fiscal effect at 4–7 trillion tenge annually.

 

Keywords: Tax Administration 3.0; shadow economy; tax gap; digital tenge; compliance; transit economies.

 

References

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