УДК 656:656.615
DOI: 10.31359/2312-3427-2019-3-300
Kazarezov A. doctor of Engineering Science, professor, the Head of the Marine Logistics Department of Marine Infrastructure Faculty of Admiral Makarov National University of Shipbuilding, Mykolaiv
Barabanova Y. Ph.D. student of Management Department of Maritime Economy Faculty of Admiral Makarov National University of Shipbuilding, Mykolaiv
Ishchenko O. PhD in economics, associate professor of Management Department National University of Shipbuilding named after Admiral Makarov
Kletsov Y., PhD student,
National University of Shipbuilding named after Admiral Makarov
FORECASTING THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UKRAINIAN PORT INDUSTRY
An estimation variant of port development based on comparison of the cargo flows structure through the port with the port infrastructure was developed. The influence of external conditions on the activity of ports is shown. With the help of the criterion of structural correspondence between the cargo flow and the capacity of the port, the ways of development of Ukrainian ports are indicated. The possibility of using the criterion to predict the development of the port depending on the forecast of changes in the structure of the cargo flow is shown.
The integral criterion of structural correspondence between the cargo flow and the throughput of the ports allows to evaluate the activity of the ports in the current and forecast periods. For the ports of Ukraine there is a structural mismatch between the cargo flow and the installed transshipment capacity. The paper shows the possibility of predicting the development of the technical equipment of ports, depending on the change in the size and structure of cargo flows through the ports.
The use of the integral criterion of structural correspondence between the cargo flow and the capacity of the ports in predicting the development of ports allows to increase the efficiency of the port economy. Future research should consider forecasting the development of individual ports to improve the efficiency of the country's port economy as a whole. The high intensity of Ukrainian ports operation now gives hope for their competitive ability in the future.
Keywords: seaport, cargo flow, structural compliance criterion, port development forecast.
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А.Я. Казарєзов, Ю.Є. Барабанова, О.А. Іщенко, Клецов Є.С. Прогнозування стратегічного розвитку портової галузі України. Розроблено прогнозний варіант розвитку портів на основі зіставлення структури вантажних потоків через порт з інфраструктурою портів. Показано вплив зовнішніх умов на діяльність портів. За допомогою критерію структурної відповідності між вантажним потоком і пропускною спроможністю порту вказано шляхи розвитку українських портів. Показана можливість використання критерію для прогнозування розвитку порту в залежності від прогнозу зміни структури вантажного потоку.
Ключові слова: морський порт, вантажний потік, критерій структурної відповідності, прогноз розвитку порту.
А.Я. Казарезов, Ю.Е. Барабанова, А.А. Ищенко, Клецов Е.С. Прогнозирование стратегического развития портовой отрасли Украины. Разработан прогнозный вариант развития портов на основе сопоставления структуры грузовых потоков через порт с инфраструктурой портов. Показано влияние внешних условий на деятельность портов. С помощью критерия структурного соответствия между грузовым потоком и пропускной способностью порта указаны пути развития украинских портов. Показана возможность использования критерия для прогнозирования развития порта в зависимости от прогноза изменения структуры грузового потока.
Ключевые слова: морской порт, грузовой поток, критерий структурного соответствия, прогноз развития порта.
: Анотація (завант.: 18)
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